When answering questions in Quora, I realized that many people looking too close into details, and too close that they cannot see the whole picture of China-US conflicts, especially Americans. This is caused by western media focusing on individual issues, trade war, Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Belt and Road Initiative, the ban of Huawei & ZTE, arresting Huawei CFO Meng WanZhou, pulled out from various international agreements, leaving international organizations, etc.
In recent years, the US has passed several bills on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, frequently sailing in South China Seas, oppressing Huawei regardless costs etc. high profile actions against China. However, these actions are all inter-related parts for one big project. That is to maintain the US world’s leader position in economy, military and technology. The rapid growth of China is challenging the US status “all of a sudden” which makes the US helpless in handling the threat.
This post contains analysis of Economic, Military and Technology Threats to America and what has America done to dealt with threats
In final section, Trump wants Huawei completely dead – 5 fatal reasons
Economic Threats to the US
While the US is still the number one economy, China is chasing fast and getting too close to trigger the US alarm.
In 1979, the year when Mr. Deng XiaoPing opened China to the world economy, the US GDP was 2,627 billions ranked #1, and China nominal GDP was 178.28 billions ranked #10. GDP of the US was 14.7 times of China. In 30 years time, GDP of the US was 20.5 Trillions, comparing to China nominal GDP of 13.6 Trillions being world’s 2nd largest economy entity in 2018. Nominal GDP of the US is 1.5 times of China. (statistics: The World Bank)
In other word, China has shrunken the nominal GDP gap for 10 times in just 30 years. GDP ranking improved from #10 in 1979 to #2 in 2018. As to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), China has surpassed the US since 2013. For those who doesn’t understand why people in China have so much to spend while GDP per capita is far behind the US and many other countries. This PPP figure explains. That means, people in China has more spending power than Americans since 2013.
The US uses GDP as ultimate measure for economy size. It implies that the US is leading the second – China for just 50-60%. By looking at the figure, it seems big. However, China surpassing the US and becoming #1 economy entity on earth is foreseeable and not far ahead, with current economic development speed of China.
The latest One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiated by Xi JinPing, which connecting Asia, Middle East, Africa, Europe and Latin America, involving over 100 countries along the lines, forms a huge economic zone. This further accelerates economic growth of China in next decades, if the US cannot stop China.
Economic Strategies against China
In order to slow down economic growing speed of China, the US initiated trade war against China, and supported Hog Kong riot behind the scene.
Trump has initiated trade war against China by imposing tariffs on major importing commodities from China, with claimed excuse of massive trade deficit. While import tariffs are to be paid by importers or consumers (Americans), the additional tariffs increase selling cost of effected products in the US market which resulted less consumption. The reduction of consumption thus lead to decrease in imports and reduced revenue of manufacturers in China.
In fact, trade war does affected GDP growth of China in 2019 where GDP growth is continuously dropping. In Q3 2019, China’s GDP growth 2019 forecast is just above 6% (Ranked 20). The cost for the US is 2.3% (Ranked 131) forecast GDP growth which would drop further to 1.1% in coming year.
There is no winner in trade war. It affects also the economy of the US. From the PMI trending 2019, it shows a continuous dropping of PMI from 59.30 (Nov 2018) down to 48.10 (Nov 2019), indicating that the US economy is going down hill.
Hong Kong Chaos
Hong Kong contributed merely 3% to China’s GDP in 2018. However, it is world’s leading financial centre, as well as monetary gateway of China. It is financially important to China, before RMB becomes international currency.
In 2014, massive protest so-called “Umbrella Revolution” broken out in Hongkong. “Occupy central” campaign disabled traffics in Central of Hong Kong.
In 2019, an Extradition Bill proposed by the Hong Kong Government after a murder case happened in Taiwan, and the suspect get caught in Hong Kong. Since there is no extradition agreement between Hong Kong and Taiwan, Hong Kong government proposed Extradition Bill in order to send the suspect back to Taiwan.
This Extradition Bill proposal was taken as excuse to instigated a massive protest for withdrawal of the bill. Under propaganda by pan-democratic that the extradition bill will let Chinese Government to retrieve anyone who criticize CCP in Hong Kong by using the Extradition Bill. The propaganda was successfully fooled many who already have prejudice of the CCP since China-British negotiation process for returning Hong Kong to China.
With assistance of the CIA to provide anti-police strategies, weapon making techniques, NED provided funding, the peaceful protest turn into violent riot. The riot is still going on today after months of vandalism, clashing with riot police, attacking civilians etc, despite the original demand for withdrawal of Extradition Bill had been achieved. Rioters demand for more, so-called 5 demands, no one less.
Hong Kong police force has been restrained and extremely minimal force was used to control the civil order, which in fact way too soft as comparing to any large scale protest and riots in western countries. None has been killed by police force in such massive riot.
Despite the U.S. goods trade surplus with Hong Kong was $31.0 billion in 2018, the US is prepared to sacrifice such surplus for slowing down the growth of China without hesitation.
Military Threats to The US
China has been modernizing its army with latest military technologies, with outstanding innovation in Stealth Fighters J20 & J31, AEW planes, Quantum Radar to detect Stealth fighters, Z20 Fighter Helicopters, Drones, short, mid and long range DF Missiles with multiple war heads (ICBM, IRBM, MRBM, SRBM), Supersonic weapons (DF-17), 093 Nuclear Attack Submarines, 094 Missile Submarines, laser cannon, Beidou Satellite Positioning System, Nuclear Submarines, Destroyers, Frigates, Cruisers, Aircraft Carriers, etc. all getting ready in about one decade. These latest military technologies allow China to confront with the US Navy for self defense.
China has also built several islands in South China Sea as defense line, equipped with various radar, electronic jamming equipment, anti-vessel and anti-aircraft missiles, jet fighters, bombers, AEW planes etc. serving as three gigantic unsinkable aircraft carriers.
Military Threats Against China
To put military pressure on China, the US refuses to recognize 9 dash line claimed by China. Since there is absolutely no room for the US itself to make any claim in SCS, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia were encouraged to make claims on South China Sea against China. [background of SCS territorial dispute] Both People Republic of China (PRC) and Republic of China (ROC) have rejected to recognize the arbitration result. China insisted that the matter should be resolved through bilateral negotiations with other claimants. After several meetings, the 6th ASEAN–China SOM on DOC was the first official consultation on the Code of Conduct (COC) – South China Sea.
Freedom of Navigation Operation in South China Sea
The U.S. 7th Fleet was deployed frequently for the Freedom of Navigation Operation in SCS, Taiwan bass, East China Sea to show off the US military power for the purpose of threatening China with such power. Every operation was confronted by Chinese PLA jet fighters and vessels.
SE Asia military bases & Island Chain
The US has deployed offensive weapons, navy and air force in SE Asia military bases, incorporate with Island Chain strategy, intend to condemn China from exiting to Pacific Ocean.
SE Asia Joint Military Exercises
The US has conducted numerous joint military exercises outside First Island Chain with Japan, S Korea, UK, France, Australia, Canada etc military alliances, in order to show off military power to China. It is believed that the US is trying to send message to China to follow what’s told by the US, and comply “America First” policy, like what the US has been using for other countries, which used to work.
Technology Threats to the US
To lead the world, technology is the most critical area. Only country with leading technology is capable to lead the world. Since 2000, the US realized that China has been making break through in technology despite many technology bans to China.
Huawei is a leading communication equipment manufacturers in China, with largest amount of 5G patterns filed. Furthermore, Huawei networking devices are sucking global networking infrastructure market share. Whilst, Trump realized that there is absolutely no US business can compete with Huawei at all. ZTE has the same faith as Huawei, being banned in the first batch.
Space technology is another critical domain where the US feels fear of the progress of China, projects including Chinese space station, Beidou Satellite Positioning Network, Change-4 Moon landing in rear side, Quantum Satellite, World’s largest Opto-Electronic Telescope, etc.
Electromagnetic power is critical in domestic and military application. In domestic application, it can be used for Meglev (Electromagnetic Train). In military application, it can be used for Railgun, and Launch Assist on Aircraft carriers. China’s railgun system was first revealed in 2011 behind the US, and ground testing began in 2014. In 2015 when the weapon system gained the ability to strike over extended ranges with increased lethality. The weapon system was successfully mounted on a Chinese Navy ship in December 2017, with sea trials undergoing in 2019. While the US railgun is still in land testing stage.
Infrastructure & High Speed Railway (HSR)
Infrastructure has been recognized worldwide that no competitors can come near China. Within last decades, China has been building numerous of mega projects. High Speed Railway used to be the domain of Germany and Japan. China has already surpassed them and becomes the major HSR builders and suppliers worldwide.
The progress of supercomputing in China has been rapid; the country’s most powerful supercomputer placed 43rd in November 2002 (DeepComp 1800), 11th by November 2003 (DeepComp 6800), 10th by June 2004 (Dawning 4000A), and by November 2010 (Tianhe-1A) held top spot. China would go on to fall behind Japan in June 2011 until June 2013 when the country’s most powerful supercomputer once again clocked in as the world record.
As of 2018, China dominated the globe’s highest performance machines list with 206 out of the top 500 fastest supercomputers in the world, exceeding the second placing (United States) which had only 124.
Above mentioned are just few examples of major advanced technologies those China in lead worldwide. Quantum Technology and AI are another key technologies China is working on, those will be in lead soon. In fact, voice AI China is already in leading position.
Technology Condemnation against China
While the US cannot do anything to all these mentioned leading technologies of china, Huawei and ZTE are the only companies with international consumer market.
Eliminate Huawei and Ban ZTE
The US thus try everything for eliminating Huawei, initially accusing Huawei devices with security threat to national security. No only America itself banned Huawei, it also put pressure to its allies to ban Huawei. Later, all EU countries confirmed that Huawei has no security threat after reviewing source code.
At the same time, CIA instructed Canada Airport guards to arrest Huawei CFO Ms Meng WanZhou illegally when Ms Meng was transferring flight in Canada, without telling Ms Meng the reason of arresting was on request from CIA. Ms Meng was then house arrested in Canada ban from leaving the country for over a year since arrest. This case is now appealing in Canada.
Apart from banning Huawei devices in America, Trump ordered to stop all Huawei suppliers from supplying anything to Huawei, including Android OS, all Google services, Microchips, etc. However, Trump has under estimated the “Spare Tyre” preparation Huawei has been working on a decade before this. Spare Tyre plan includes self developed Microchips, Harmony OS. In latest released flagship model Mate 30, there is not a single piece from the US suppliers. Huawei has successfully eliminated all reliance on the US parts.
Do you think this is the end for oppressing Huawei?
Huawei 2019 Q3 financial report shows a revenue increase of 26% even under oppression by America. And, Huawei has obtained 55 5G network infrastructure contracts around the world. Trump has advertised for Huawei to the world for free.
Without eliminating Huawei, and there is no American company can compete with Huawei, Trump decided to subsidize Nokia (yes, subsidizing a foreign company) to build 5G network infrastructure in America. Further to that, Trump has propose new law specifically for the purpose of eliminating Huawei, eg prevent any foreign companies supplying Huawei where their parts has America IP in it.
Huawei 251 case
At this particular time, an odd case against Huawei 251 was exposed in China. A former employee got locked up by local police for 251 days (people calling this incidence Huawei 251). According to Huawei, this former employee blackmailed Huawei for more leave compensation or leaking some commercial secret he has. Finally he got what he asked for, RMB 300,000 (approx USD42,000) . Later Huawei filed a case to court suing this employee for blackmailing. This case eventually being portrayed as Huawei oppressing former employee causing massive internet storm.
Huawei version may be more trustworthy for following reasons:
1. Timing: Case exposed in such critical timing, ruin the positive image built for years by Huawei
2. Financial: USD42,000 is a dust for Huawei. Legal proceeding would have costed more. A gigantic business would not be stupid to take risk for such amount
3. The employee had tape recorded conversation during negotiating with Huawei. He was well prepared. While, there is no way for Huawei to tape recording every conversation with employee. Under such circumstances, it is possible the recording has been trimmed and left only the section in favor of the employee
4. Employment dispute is common in any countries. None would have spread so fast that the news dominated all social media headline within a day. That is very unusual, especially it is not a huge amount, news value isn’t big enough to spread that fast.
5. Huawei employs over 200,000 employees worldwide for over a decade. If this is Huawei code of conduct, there would have more than one case filed. Why this is the only odd case? Why this particular employee where financial value is merely USD42,000?
The main reasons why Trump wants Huawei dead:
Huawei invested in AI development with leading achievement. AI is future, potential. Currently, Huawei is leading the world in AI. It will be a monster within few years time. No other American companies, nor EU companies can compete. It is a Chinese company.
2. Communication Technology
Huawei is leading the world in 5G communication technology. It has already engaged in 6G development.
3. HarmonyOS eco-system
HarmonyOS is a universal OS which can be used in any electronic devices. Cross devices data exchange and compatibility become extremely easy.
Huawei has their own intellectual property microships, Ai chips etc. In near future, Huawei aim to localize microship manufacturing to avoid being contained by supply chain.
5. Automotive Industry
This is the fatal reason. Automotive industry is one of the largest industry in America. Huawei has started automotive manufacturing projects with GAC Beijing. Financial Times has reported that “Huawei has revealed a new tech front for the Trump administration to be concerned about. While it is best known for its leadership in 5G and telecoms networks, reveals it is well advanced with plans to launch self-driving vehicles as early as 2021. The Chinese company is providing the AI backbone in several co-operative ventures including ones with Germany’s Audi and the Chinese manufacturers GAC Group, Beijing New Energy Automobile and Changan Automobile.”
Are you still believing that Huawei is banned for security threat?
Other Political Strategies to slow down China’s development progress
Encourage Separatism in China
Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang are always used as weapons to provoke China by the US, under the name of Human Rights. However, these so-called Human Rights propaganda is for one purpose, to separate these places from China, or at least setting up anti-china elements in those locations, causing chaos to China. Recently, Hong Kong, the last card of 4 of a kind, was also used. Thus, there are Taiwan Travel Act, Xinjiang Human Rights Act, Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
Xinjiang “Concentration Camp” or “Re-education Camp” was created for the purpose of passing Xinjiang Human Rights Bill. Hong Kong Riot was created for the purpose of passing Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
The logic is that if lucky these places were separated from China, a puppet government will be formed under the US control. With democracy, the US can easily swap government if one is not following order. This kind of practice can be seen now in Philippines and Venezuela, where the current governments are siding with China.
In worst case, chaos in these locations will destabilize China regionally, aiming to expend to wider areas, in order to deteriorate economy of China.
All actions for separatism by the CIA in any country we have seen are generally ignited with Human Rights, Democracy and Freedom, no exception.