At current stage, it is less likely that China Air Force could win America’s:
- Chinese main fighter jets are J10, J11/J16, J15, J20 (stealth). Apart from J20, they are 3-4th generation fighters. Comparing to F22 and F35, these older generation fighters are in disadvantage. J20 is new and its fighting capability is yet to be evidenced.
- Pilots lack of real combat experiences. Even though China has been sending pilots overseas training, plus local combat training, no pilots have been engaged in real combat yet.
It will take a decade for Chinese Air force to find tune its fighters and pilots. Unless there was hot war within a decade, there is opportunity that China air force can match the US air force power or stay close match.
In future war, China may use more unmanned weapons, such as kinds of drones, unmanned subs. Especially for air force. High tech unmanned fighters would replace traditional fighters. This may over turn the case completely.
Some unmanned weapons are being developed by both China and the US, mini drone group attacking fleets, unmanned missile speed boats (Chinese), unmanned submarines, etc.
If you purely compare air force to air force, China is weaker. Thus, China will not use its disadvantage to fight. Chinese PLA will try to use other alternative for air defense. China has developed so many kinds of missiles and radars, all tailor made for the US carrier striking group attack.
I predict that in future combat, drones UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) play important part. Imagine pilots are sitting in remote control room controlling stealth fighters like playing video games. Training cost is far less than a pilot. The key benefit is that life of player is “unlimited” as long as there are new UAVs.