Simple answer is that the current violence and riot will not go forward for long. However, further anti-government campaigns are foreseeable, probably more violent. Pan-democrats winning won’t turn Hong Kong a better place, but more troublesome place.
As I commented about democracy system in other questions that it has quite a lot of issues. The success of democracy requires quite some conditions or it is harmful to a country. It is not as beautiful as it sounds. Anyway. That is what people’s choice, prepare to take its consequence as well.
Major Opinion Groups in Hong Kong
There are basically 3 major opinion groups in Hongkong, activists, pro-democracy, and pro-china, where pro-democracy is the majority. Within pro-democracy, there are also 2 sub-classes, genuine democracy believers and anti-china gangs.
- Activists (minority, riot participants)
- genuine democracy believers (majority)
- anti-china gang (moderate, riot supporters)
- Pro-China (moderate)
Both 2a and 3 do not want riots at all.
If you are interested to study further, please continue reading my understanding of the reason for majority pro-democracy.
What makes pro-democracy majority in Hong Kong
There is history background for the distribution proportion of such.
- When you have it, hard to let go
Hong Kong had been ruled by British for a century long. Despite there wasn’t any democracy, no one dare to complain, due to fatal oppression by the British Government.
In 1967 leftist riot, 51 people had been killed, of whom at least 22 were killed by the police, and 15 died in bomb attacks, with 832 people sustaining injuries, while 4979 people were arrested and 1936 convicted.
Before British Government handed over Hong Kong back to China, as usual, British Government started to build traps for next Government, which is similar to India when British Government Colonial was ended, separating India into 2 nations and leave Kashmir as unassigned area which will serve as fire line for both India and Pakistan.
In Hong Kong, British started to introduce democracy to Hong Kong few years before handing over Hong Kong. The benefits to turn Hong Kong into democracy administration are:
- attempt to setup puppet government or
- controlling/influencing new government
- use democracy as weapon to attack non democracy new government
Democracy was promoted as the only best political system on earth, which is really a great thing for individualists. After receiving British “generous offers”, it is difficult for people to let go their individual benefits.
2. Dark era of China
In 1966, Mao’s Great Cultural Revolution did cause significant damage to China, destroying Chinese cultures and values, oppressed educated, ruined education and development of China.
As results, many Chinese of that generation and their next are still under the shadow of Great Culture Revolution. These people eventually becomes anti-china group.
In 1989, a massive student protest was taken place for pro-democracy in Beijing Tiananmen Square. With overwhelming western propaganda and twisted reports in this campaign, many were fooled that Chinese Government was brutally killing innocent students for being pro-democracy.
Violence and damages protesters done, were hidden and trimmed by western media to direct audiences vision to believe that there was a massacre and brutal. Now, many further information can be found online to help people finding out the whole picture of the campaign and discover what conspiracy behind the campaign.
Not many will go deep to explore the truth. Until now, many participated in that protest have realized that they were used and sacrificed for cracking down Chinese government rather than fighting for pro-democracy, and explicitly express their regret for participating that campaign, which was in fact one of the Color Revolution to crackdown a government by the CIA. (Please see my other answer in regards to Tiananmen Incident)
Tiananmen Square incident has been used by anti-china gang in Hong Kong to brainwash Hong Kong people since then, and turned more and more people into pro-democracy and anti-china camp.
3. Anti-china propaganda leading bias
Since China was found, news and reports were basically negative on China, especially after participant of 1950–1953 Korea War against the US led UN army which failed the US to eliminate communist in Korea.
The rapid growth of Chinese economy since open policy introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1979, Tiananmen square incidence became the first large scale anti-china conspiracy 10 years after seeing China’s rapid growth.
Since then, shadow casting China and “Evil Country” was crowned on China. It is hard to find any positive news and reports of China from western media.
I grow up in all these propaganda during my high school and university period. My understanding of China was affected until my mid age, when I studied more and more history and different views on major events, I discovered how I was misinformed during the past.
It would be the same for most of other Hongkongers I believe. I woke up because now I interpret major incidences from intentions behind, rather than isolating and evaluating individually.
For example, when British introduce democracy to Hong Kong, the timing is suspicious. 1989 Tiananmen Square, 1991 USSR collapses, 2010 Arab Spring, 2014 Occupy central, and today’s Hong Kong riot aren’t individual incidences. These are well planned campaigns in order to crack down current regimes.
Current Hong Kong riot was started from proposing Extradition Bill in Hong Kong. However, it is used as an excuse to instigate massive protest. Even without it, riot won’t be avoided. There is always chances for anti-china brand to find alternative excuse to initiate anti-government campaign. Successful instigation of theae campaigns was assured by long term anti-china and China Threat propaganda.
Democracy and freedom of speech were heavily used against Chinese government, while the government efficiency evaluation has been omitted. Democracy and freedom focus on individual value, while Chinese political system focus on collective value.
It is easy to understand that individual value will be much easier for people to recognize instead of collective value. People care individual benefits far more than national benefits. This is why democracy is sweeter initially and attractive. Only when you can look further ahead to understand the long term benefits a strong country can bring to its people.
4. Failure of Hong Kong Education System
Being part of China, the education in Chinese recent history, development and policies of China are hardly taught. Without proper and sufficient knowledge of China, new understanding of China is very limited. Most information about China were from western media, majority of them are anti-china camp.
This is not difficult to proof by carrying out survey to see how many Hongkonger knows Chinese recent 100 years of history. I bet the proportion of lacking country history in Hong Kong is shockingly lower than western people kmowing history of their countries.
I do not support political education in academic environment, but national history should be necessary for citizens to know and understand. History isn’t politics. It has no political stand.
5. Failure of removing colonialism and rebuild identity of Hong Kong people
Many Hong Kongers, especially non pro-china groups, failing to identify themselves. Calling themselves “Hong Kongers” is evidence, while failing to admit being “Chinese” is strong evidence.
I can understand anti-china emotion. But, I hardly understand that being Chinese, how can you refuse to admit being “Chinese”. It is shocking to hear some yelling on Youtube that they rather be a fly on dog shxt than be a Chinese. How pathetic!
If you do not respect your own identity, no one respect you. No one will respect one who betrays its ethnic.
Hong Kong government failed to remove colonialism effects after took over Hong Kong. Many Hong Kongers are still feeling western superior status over mainlanders. This is typical post-colonization syndrome.
6. Self esteem of Hong Kong people being superior to mainlanders
Before 1980, Hong Konger’s mainlander relatives were poor and low educated. Mainlander were eager to receive latest appliances and commodities from their relatives in Hong Kong. Wealth and education made Hong Kongers superior status in China.
After China opened to the world since 1979, economy has been progressing at jaw dropping speed. People’s life has been improving rapidly. Wealth of mainlanders surpassed Hong Kongers approximately since 2000.
Superior status of Hong Kongers is threaten. Seeing the shocking spending power of mainlanders in Hong Kong, mainly in luxury goods and real estates, jealous turn many Hong Kongers into anti-china camp.
I wasn’t plan to write these much. These are straight out of my head to explain why democracy is still major market in Hong Kong, despite months of violence riot in Hong Kong supported by pan-democrats.
As mentioned, not all pro-democracy groups supports violence. So, I believe riot will not go for long.
I am a citizen of Hong Kong, and my advise to people in Hong Kong is that social stability is always priority to anything else. Without stability, democracy and freedom won’t feed you.
If you believe democracy and freedom will make Hong Kong a better place, you better rethink. Hong Kong will become a chaos land, a battle field for the US and China continuous wrestling for decades. The US will not suffer, China may have minimal lost. Hong Kong is the victim, totally lost and destroyed.
Hongkongers, don’t destroy your home for others. See clear who is actually help improving your home. Don’t you believe someone has no benefits in Hongkong will help Hongkong sincerely?
To Hong Kong independence dreamers, national integrity is inevitable bottom line of China. China will pay any cost for this. No one on earth can change this at foreseeable future.