How quickly will China replace America as a world power?
China has been world power for years. However, China is not going with the same path as the US in terms of exercising super power.
American interpret superpower as military, economic and technology power combined, which allows the US to sanction or use military operation on (bully) countries those not following the will of the US.
From history, it is easy to understand that the development of the US requires wars, a peaceful world is against the interest of the US. A world without conflicts and wars, the US weapons manufacturers will be head ache, so as funding to run Presidency election campaigns. For those who do not understand why America engaged in so many wars, this is the main reason.
However, the development of China requires peaceful world for its own interest to create a stable and harmony economic environment. Thus, China needs world peace, not conflicts.
There are samples showing how China influences our world positively. Belt Road Initiative (BRI) and heavy investment on Africa to help their economic development thus making them with spending power to buy products. The success of such economic influence requires a peaceful environment to achieve.
To maintain peaceful environment, China has to advance its military power to counter the military threat from the US. Thus, China doesn’t have to surpass the US in military power but follow close enough to prevent the US from exercising its military power to destroy peaceful environment, which is fundamental to economic development.
Even though China is working on its own pace to advance its economy, technology, and military, the “pace” of China is indeed faster than the US. This was interpreted by America as deliberate challenge. But, people who studied Chinese history clearly know that for the past thousand years, China had not exercised its military power for the purpose of conquering the world, such as Middle East and Europe when it had the power to do so. Border policy back in those dynasties was to ensure border safety and harmony with neighboring countries. If they create no threats to national security, China left them alone.
With the current developing speed of China, surpassing the US is really a natural result, unless America suddenly accelerate its development speed equivalent or even faster than china. This is why the US trying everything to deter the growth of China, rather than investing these effort in its own development. The US understands that even they invest all these efforts in its own development, they will be surpassed by China sooner or later. Like soccer game, players will choose fault tactics to prevent forward player from obtaining goal.
When many Americans resists to admit the fact that China has great chance to surpass the US in advanced technologies, both for domestic and military, let’s see some facts:
- High Speed Railway Technology: Not only China is self sufficient in this area, but also making it as major infrastructure exports to the world, apart from nuclear power plants export. Now, Quantum technology has been used in the latest Meglev high speed train controlling system to eliminate network attack on its control system.
- Computing technology: China is leading the world in Quantum, Supercomputer, AI technology. In AI area, voice and facial recognition are both dominated by China. The latest DaXing Airport makes use of AI technology heavily in custom clearance, check-in check out, lost luggage tracking, tracking and reminding people late for boarding etc.
- Space Tech: The first country landing on rear side of the moon. The first country to grow plants on the moon. The only space station after the US space station expires in 2020. Orbit switching satellite etc.
- One launching rocket sending 10 satellites at once into their own orbit.
- The first nation to deploy hyper-sonic weapons, eg DF-17
- Cashless payment system: Majority of people in China carry only mobile phone without wallet and cash. Such payment system widely used by many small businesses, even mobile street sellers. Such digital payment system has now been advanced to use facial recognition tech as security verification to make payments.
- Advanced logistic system: Fully robotic logistic system which allow local parcel delivery so efficient. Morning purchase, afternoon delivered at a cost (10 Yuan, approx USD1.5) cheaper than normal postal service. In Australia, same day delivery costs over AUD100 (approx 550 yuan) for a parcel delivered in the same city. Inter-state parcel delivery in China generally take 2–3 days through out the country for USD10 or less. Where else can achieve such efficiency?
- 5G technology
More leading technology advancement examples: LNG vessels, largest Gantry crane for vessel manufacturing, highest power laser, shaftless propeller, etc. These have already overtaken the US.
With current China speed, it is not surprised that China will overtake the US in majority technology domains within 20 years, conservative speaking.
Economy in terms of GDP has been predicted by many financial experts that China will surpass the US by 2050.
Peaceful world assists GDP growth of China. Infrastructure, general products trading are healthyly growing harmonic multi countries economic zone formed with BRI project.
In contrast, chaos and conflicts helps the US to achieve better GDP. As the US only instigate wars in other countries. Off shore wars do not directly effect its own economy. Wars help weapon exports and generate great portion of GDP contribution, plus resources robbed from those countries.
China doesn’t intent to overtake the US militarily but stay close enough to prevent the US from exercising military threat to China. However, with advancement in space tech and other technology domains of China, even it doesn’t want to compete with the US, it will naturally overtake the US when those technologies are all in lead regardless.