Taiwan 2020 election has completed. Tsai won and be re-elected to lead ROC for the next 4 years.
Tsai won this election with strong support and intervention from the US may be beneficial to CCP instead. The Blue was seen as a party siding China while the Green is anti-china party. In fact, both parties are refusing unification in different ways. Regardless which party wins, there is no help to unification of One China.
If the BLUE won, the only advantage in China-Taiwan issue is easing the current tension to a more peaceful situation. When Ma Yingjiu was ruling Taiwan, peaceful re-unification and One Country Two System proposed by China was rejected. Many claim that Taiwanese doesn’t promote independence but wanting to maintain current form of live and freedom. This is arguable because One Country Two System proposed by CCP allows Taiwanese to have freedom as they have now. Thus, freedom isn’t the factor. Full control of administration should be the reason.
Thus, when China wants Peaceful Unification, Taiwan wants to stay separate regardless who runs ROC. This eliminates any hope of Peaceful Re-unification of One China. Many Taiwanese and westerners see this as hope for Taiwan independence. This is a serious and dangerous signal to Taiwan.
One China is a firm national policy of China. From history, China has no hesitation to protect its national integrity for ANY COST. This has been cond by Green Taiwanese and westerners. From many videos on Youtube, Q&A in Quora etc., quite some Taiwanese proclaimed that it will be costly for CCP to military re-unify Taiwan. However, they do not realize that cost and casualty are not considerations in unifying Taiwan.
Now, the GREEN won this election. It is predictable that Tsai government will go further away from re-unification. Therefore, CCP won’t be hesitate in adjusting its re-unification policy anymore. There is only one option to CCP now, which is military recovery.
Many would agree that China will unify Taiwan by 2049 (100 anniversary of China). It is certain that this will happen. The question is how it will happen.
According to current situation, peaceful unification is going further from possible. In other word, reunification via military force would become the only option for CCP. This election will eventually change CCP’s China-Taiwan policy.
Estimation of unification by force
We shall understand that once unification by force is deployed, there is no way back.
Island seizure of Taiwan – Force without war
China will deploy its Navy to seize Taiwan from supplies and off shore transportation by sealing Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, East China Sea and Philippines near Taiwan. Network attacks to disable financial market,
Reaction of Taiwan
- Top level military alert
- Anti air strike drills
- Quota for supplies
- Seeking the US intervention, wish for the US military intervention
- Seeking international public pressure on China
Reaction of the US
- Military threat with its navy force
- Media war
- Freedom of navigation becomes weekly or even daily practice
- Sanction China together with its allies
Military deployment – Hot War
Declare civil war and military force to take control of Taiwan. In case of use of force, the Chinese army may make a surprise attack and obtain a political solution before other countries can respond. If it cannot be resolved quickly, the PLA will try to deter the US from intervening. If the deterrence fails, the PLA will try to delay US intervention and seek victory in asymmetric, limited, and quick-determination methods.
Rapid Political Control
- Missiles attacks waves targeting major military facilities to minimize defense ability of ROC military force
- Attacking subs and battle fleets surrounding Taiwan ready for 2nd wave target attacks, as well as defending external military intervention.
- Airborne troops land on major locations including Presidential Palace, major military bases and camps, full curfew in major cities etc.
Possible military interference
- declare and recognize Taiwan as a country before or during hot war, so that making its military intervention become legal by proclaiming military aid to alliance. This could lead to direct military contact between China and the US, but possibility is very low.
- Multi-nation navy joint operation in Philippine Sea putting pressure on China. This works only if China take too long to control Taiwan.
Regardless, no other country would like to be involved in China-Taiwan military confrontation.
US draws red line
Since 2010, the United States’ “Annual Report on China’s Military and Security Development” has listed seven “red lines” that the mainland has to use force against Taiwan for four consecutive years.
- declares independence
- doesn’t declare independence but act as independent country
- internal conflicts and separation
- obtaining nuclear weapon
- continuously delaying the process of unification talk
- external force intervention
- foreign military force settling
The U.S. report has also mentioned many times in recent years how the mainland would block Taiwan and sea and conduct an island seizure plan when the situation in the strait is tense. However, the U.S. report has also maintained that once the mainland determines that cross-strait reunification is hopeful, and the loss of war is greater than the benefits, it will delay the use of force.
The red lines of #2, #3, #5, #6 are currently on high risk as Tsai government go further away from unification.
General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in an important speech: “The affairs of the Chinese are to be decided by the Chinese. The Taiwan issue is China’s internal affairs and it concerns China’s core interests and the Chinese people’s nation. Feelings do not allow any outside interference. “This is a solemn declaration of the New Era Party and the government’s adherence to the one-China principle in the international community. It is also a slap in the face of the external interference forces and the” Taiwan independence “forces on the island, trample on the one-China principle and damage China Territorial warnings and deterrence of territorial and sovereign integrity.
The long delay of the Taiwan issue for 70 years is an important reason for external interference from the US-led external forces. After the Second World War, the United States supported the Chiang Kai-shek Group in fighting a civil war. After the Chiang Kai-shek Group fled to Taiwan in 1949, the United States continued to support the Kuomintang authorities in confronting the People’s Republic of China in all aspects. After the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, although the United States turned to recognize the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and cut off its “diplomatic relations” with the Taiwan authorities due to global strategic needs, it soon produced a “Relations with Taiwan Act” “, Claiming to have an obligation to Taiwan on security, and playing a” balance beam game “on both sides of the strait.
After the mid-1990s, the United States focused more on using the countercurrent of “Taiwan independence” forces to prevent China’s reunification. On the one hand, the United States is stepping up the sale of high-tech weapons to the Taiwan authorities and earning large sums of money. On the other hand, it continuously improves the US-Taiwan substantive relations and comprehensively improves US-Taiwan political and military relations. The United States has only one purpose: to maintain the separation of Taiwan and the motherland for a long time.
Because of this, those Taiwan politicians who refuse to reunify and seek “Taiwan independence” all regard the United States as a “big boss” and “majestic emperor” and obey the United States. In particular, heads of the “Taiwan independence” ruling authorities such as Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and Cai Ying-wen used the support of the United States as a natural asset on their own books, thereby bewitching Taiwanese public opinion and engaging in “Taiwan independence” separatist activities. The rise of “Taiwan independence” forces is directly related to external support from the United States and other countries.
In 1983, when Deng Xiaoping put forward the concept of peaceful reunification, he emphasized: “Do not let foreign countries intervene. That only means that China has not yet become independent, and the consequences are endless.” This is the conclusion he concluded by summarizing the history of cross-strait relations. The intervention of external forces led by the United States not only violates the basic rules of international law, but also brings endless disaster to compatriots on both sides of the strait. After 1949, several major “Taiwan crisis” across the Taiwan Straits were all related to the intervention of the United States, and some were even directly caused by the intervention of the Americans. History has proven that the involvement of the United States in the Taiwan issue is by no means what the Americans call “Peace across the Taiwan Straits”, but at the cost of compromising the lives of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits in exchange for US self-interest in the Taiwan Straits.
After the Trump administration came to power, China has been regarded as a “strategic competitor”, playing the “Taiwan card”, and interfering in China’s internal affairs on the Taiwan issue. The United States has successively formulated the “Fiscal Year 2018 National Defense Authorization Act” to encourage amendments to “US-Taiwan warship exchange visits” amendments, the “Taiwan Exchange Act” encouraging US-Taiwan officials to exchange visits, and contains recommendations to the US government to “strengthen Taiwan’s asymmetric combat capabilities”
The “Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act” with two amendments to “Reserve Forces” and the “Asia Reassurance Initiative Act” which recommends that the U.S. government regularly conduct arms sales to Taiwan and senior US officials visit Taiwan. In the past two years, everyone who cares about China-US relations and the Taiwan issue can see that, in fact, the Chinese government has worked hard to prevent the United States from “derailing” on the Taiwan issue. These US practices echo the practices of the “Taiwan independence” ruling authorities on the island. They are constantly testing the limits of the Chinese government and people’s tolerance. The Taiwan Strait region may at any time cause huge waves.